India’s economic growth in fiscal 2021-22 (FY22) may fall to 8.8 percent from the earlier estimate of 9.2 percent, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO), which recently said the pandemic had a lesser debilitating effect on the economy in FY21 than what was estimated earlier. The gross domestic product (GDP) in FY21 contracted by 6.6 percent, against the 7.3 percent dip estimated earlier.
NSO also revised down GDP growth for FY19 to 3.7 percent from the earlier estimate of 4 percent. “Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2020-21 and 2019-20 stands at Rs. 135.58 lakh cr and Rs. 145.16 lakh cr, respectively, showing a contraction of 6.6 percent during 2020-21 as compared to growth of 3.7 percent during 2019-20,” NSO said in the revised national account data.
“FY21 GDP contraction pegged at minus 6.6 percent from minus 7.3 percent earlier. FY20 numbers revised to 3.7 percent from 4 percent. At this rate, FY22 growth rate is now at 8.8 percent. We expect a further jump in FY23 estimates. However, all changes are purely of [the] base in FY20 as of now,” State Bank of India’s Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh.
Industry department data showed growth in the eight infrastructure sectors picked up in December to 3.8 percent as the impact of heavy rains eased. It had dipped to a nine-month low of 3.1 percent in November. However, core sector growth remained considerably lower than 8.4 percent expansion seen in October.
