India’s cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season has been further reduced by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) by 8.31 lakh bales to 315.32 lakh bales of 170 kg each (i.e., 335.03 lakh running bales of 160 kg each) from its previous estimate of 323.63 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 343.86 lakh running bales of 160 kg each).
The total cotton supply for the months of October 2021 to May 2022 is now estimated at 367.22 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the arrivals of 288.38 lakh bales, imports of 7 lakh bales, and the opening stock now estimated by the CAI at 71.84 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, the CAI said in its May estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2021-22 beginning from October 1, 2021.
The CAI has adopted the opening stock for the season at 71.84 lakh bales of 170 kg each, i.e., at the same level as finalised by the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) at its recent meeting held on May 23, 2022, by making one-time downward revision of 3.16 lakh bales in its earlier opening stock estimate of 75 lakh bales.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2021 to May 2022 at 225 lakh bales, while the export shipments up to May 31, 2022 are estimated by the CAI at 38 lakh bales. Stock at the end of May 2022 is estimated at 104.22 lakh bales, including 70 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 34.22 lakh bales with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc, including the cotton sold but not delivered).
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2021-22 i.e., up to September 30, 2022 at 402.16 lakh bales, which is less by 11.47 lakh bales compared to 413.63 lakh bales estimated by the CAI previously. The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 71.84 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season on October 1, 2021, crop for the season estimated at 315.32 lakh bales as against the previous estimate of 323.63 lakh bales, and the imports for the season estimated at 15 lakh bales, that is at the same level as estimated previously as against the previous year’s import estimates of 10 lakh bales.
The domestic consumption is now estimated by the CAI at 315 lakh bales, as against 320 lakh bales estimated previously. The exports for the season have been estimated at 40 lakh bales. The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2020-21 was of 78 lakh bales. The carry-over stock which was earlier estimated at 53.63 lakh bales is now estimated at 47.16 lakh bales.
