Cotton Association of India (CAI), in its January 2021 estimate, has retained its cotton crop estimate for the 2020-21 season, beginning October 1, 2020, at 360 lakh bales of 170 kg each. India’s domestic consumption is expected to reach its normal level this year after the disruptions and labour shortage on account of the lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic.
The total cotton supply during the months of October 2020 to January 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 386.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each, i.e. 410.39 lakh running bales of 160 kg each, which comprises the arrivals of 255.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each during the months of October 2020 to January 2021, import of cotton estimated at 6.00 lakh bales upto January 31, 2020 and opening stock at the beginning of the cotton season on October 1, 2020 estimated by the CAI at 125.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2020 to January 2021 at 110.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each, while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto January 31, 2021 is 29 lakh bales. Stocks at the end of January 2021 are estimated by the CAI at 247.25 lakh bales.
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till the end of the cotton season 2020-21 i.e. upto September 30, 2021 at 499 lakh bales of 170 kg each. The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 125 lakh bales at the beginning of the season on October 1, 2020, crop for the season estimated at 360 lakh bales, and imports estimated by the CAI at 14 lakh bales (compared to 15.50 lakh bales in the previous cotton season 2019-20).
Domestic consumption has now been estimated by the CAI at 330 lakh bales of 170 kg each, i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous month. There is an increase of 80 lakh bales in the cotton consumption compared to the previous crop year’s consumption estimate of 250 lakh bales, as the consumption is expected to reach its normal level this year.
The CAI has estimated exports for the ongoing season at 54 lakh bales of 170 kg each, as against 50 lakh bales estimated for the previous cotton season. The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2020-21 is estimated by the CAI at 115 lakh bales as against 107.50 lakh bales at the end of the previous cotton season 2019-20.
